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October 29, 2009

NFL Football Picks - Week 8

Maybe posting my picks here is bad luck.  The first week I do it, I go 7-6 (and thank God for Drew Brees and the Saints defense!).  Then again, I've been delightfully mediocre (with that one 14-2 week's exception) for most of the season, so I guess this isn't a big surprise.  I'm still above .500!  Currently, I'm 57-46. After starting the season with back-to-back 6-10 weeks, I haven't been below .500 yet.

There's a first time for everything, though!

I also notice that the Home team is the favourite in all but one game this week.  Makes you ponder, doesn't it?

One weird thing about last week:  with two exceptions, all games were decided by 10 or more points.  How often does that happen?  Probably as often as Sarah Michelle Gellar knocks on my door and propositions me.

So, without further adieu, and hopefully with much less suckitude, is Week 8!

Baltimore (-3.5) vs Denver

Repeat after me, Bears fans.  Kyle Orton is 6-0.  Kyle Orton is 6-0.  Kyle Orton has only thrown one interception this year.  Kyle Orton has only thrown one interception this year.  Yes, Bears fans, maybe the problem wasn't that your quarterback sucked.  The Ravens, 0-3 after beginning the season 3-0, are looking listless.  As long as the Ravens continue to take stupid penalties (which basically lost them the Cincinnati game), they're going to come up short.  I think Denver's just too strong for them.

Houston (-3.5) at Buffalo
Ok, so I overestimated Jake Delhomme's ability to tell which colour his receivers were wearing (hint, Jake:  they're wearing white, silver, and blue) and picked Carolina to beat the lowly Bills.  That was, admittedly, a dumb mistake.  But Houston is much better than the Panthers, and the Bills are still terrible, despite a 2-game winning streak over two horrible teams.  On the other hand, the Texans cost me a pick because they let the 49ers back into a game so that they covered the spread.  But Buffalo ain't no San Francisco.  And the Texans know what happens when I get pissed off.  That's right.  A nasty letter and keying Matt Schaub's car.

Chicago (-13.5) vs Cleveland
That's a big spread for the often inept Bears to cover.  But this is Cleveland they're playing.  And they are playing at home, too.  The Browns are near the bottom in both offensive and defensive categories, so surely Cutler can actually have a good game this week?  Or at least a mediocre one?  The Browns have scored 6 or fewer points in 4 out of the 7 games so far this year (which actually includes a win!), and I don't see them doing much more against the Chicago defense.  Even if it is just average.  Hopefully, the Bears will know the right start time of the game this week and not think they're playing on Sunday night.  That is the reason they were so horrible last week, isn't it?

Dallas (-9.5) vs Seattle
Dallas proved me wrong last week, with Romo tearing apart the Falcons defense, going 21-29 for 311 yards and 3 TDs.  Seattle's defense?  Better than Atlanta's, but they can't score to save their life (with the exception of against Jacksonville and St. Louis, but that's like saying they can score against your son's pee-wee league).  Whenever I actually watch the Seahawks, they end up tanking, and I'll probably watch them this week.  If only so that my pick turns out to be right.

Detroit (-3.5) vs St. Louis
This is the game that Satan will have on at all the bars in Hell.  What better way to inflict endless torture on your residents?  This is almost a toss-up, but since Detroit has actually managed to beat a team, I'll go with them.  It will either be an offensive show because neither defense is any good, or it will be an offensive cock-up of monumental proportions and we'll have another 6-3 game.  This is definitely a showcase for the movable object vs the stoppable force.  St. Louis has the worst offense in the league but Detroit has the second-worst defense in the league.  Something's got to to give.  I think it will be the Detroit defense that steps it up.  What's that?  What's that coin that I just tossed in the air?  I don't know what you're talking about.

Green Bay (-3.5) vs Minnesota
Brett Favre, please come home!!  Yes, he is home, coming into Green Bay in the enemy Purple and White.  The Green Bay crowd will be all over him, I'm sure.  But he can weather the storm.  He's a Wrangler man!  Or whatever the hell kind of jeans he's pushing.  Anyway, Green Bay's offense is coming into its own and, surprisingly, the defense is stellar so far this year!  If only the offensive line was as good.  Rodgers will be getting a hefty face-ful of Jared Allen.  Hello!  Nice to meet you.  Sorry about removing your spleen.  And you got blood on my jersey, damn you.

Indianapolis (-12.5) vs San Francisco
The Peyton Manning machine keeps on rolling, like an Energizer Bunny that does MasterCard commercials.  The 49ers defense is built to stop the rush (Top 10) but is vulnerable to the pass.  That's a perfect match-up to stop the Colts! (cue derisive laughter)  One thing you don't generally think about with Indianpolis, though, is their defense, but they're #2 in the league in points allowed.  For the 49ers, will Alex Smith repeat his heroics that almost brought them back for a win against Houston?  Or was that all just a David Copperfield illusion?  It's a big spread, but Indy is used to that, and they usually cover.  They seem to be over their early-season doldrums.

New York Jets (-3.5) vs Miami
A lot of the same spreads this week (3.5), making me wonder how certain these oddsmakers are.  These are the best in the business, aren't they?  Because they seem rather unsure of themselves this week (other than predicting that Cleveland will get their asses kicked).  Anyway, I'm annoyed with the Jets for so totally proving me wrong last week.  I guess the Buffalo game was the anomaly.  And here I thought Mark Sanchez was just coming back down to earth.  Of course, his resurgence was against Oakland, but still.  Miami beat the Jets a couple of weeks ago in Miami, and I'm thinking the Jets are going to be looking for revenge.  I think they take this one.  It will be a slim win, by 4 or 5 points.
New York

San Diego (-17.5) vs Oakland
Geez!  I know Oakland got smoked last week and that they're playing in San Diego, but are the oddsmakers forgetting Week 1 when Oakland almost pulled off the upset?  Of course, the Raiders have only scored in double-digits twice since that fateful day, but that's beside the point.  The Chargers, for some inexplicable reason (maybe the fact that Ladainian Tomlinson is a shadow of his former self?), can't run the ball to save their lives.  Why do I see this as Raiders-Eagles 2.0?  San Diego will have the home crowd going, and I'm pretty sure they're going to win this game.  But not by 18 points.

Tennessee (-3.5) vs Jacksonville
Will this be the week?  Will Tennessee finally get their first win after being so horrible for the first 7 weeks of the season (they even lost their Bye week)?  How bad do these oddsmakers think Jacksonville is?  Sure, they couldn't score against the Seahawks' cardboard defense, but they beat the Titans earlier this year by 20 points!  The Titans are coming off of their Bye week after losing to the Patriots 59-0.  They've had 2 weeks to stew in their own inept juices.  I don't see any logic to this spread at all, but it's nice to have a sure underdog bet going.  Of course, this is where the Progosticator Gods look down on me and laugh, I start whimpering, and the Titans blow Jacksonville off the field.

Arizona (-9.5) vs Carolina
Jake Delhomme, to quote a certain CSI theme song, "I won't get fooled again!"  You, of the "I'll just throw it up in the air and whoever comes down with it, that's fine by me" school of quarterbacking, I have finally seen through your treacherous eyes.  The only thing that might save the Panthers in this game is that they're #1 against the pass, and that's all Arizona knows how to do.  Their running game is of the "blink and you'll miss it" variety.  Not because it's that fast, but because it only makes a 3-second cameo before walking offstage again.  Was it really worth the 3-hour make-up job for that short of an appearance?  Anyway, I expect at least one Delhomme pick for a touchdown, so that along with a Warner-Fitzgerald hook-up will more than cover that spread. By the middle of the third quarter, Delhomme will be ready to throw in the towel.  Too bad it'll be to a Cardinal player.  Who will then drop it hastily because it smells of sweat.

Philadelphia (-2.5) vs New York Giants
This is definitely a tough game to call.  The Giants have looked human the last two weeks, but Philly is so one-dimensional that Oakland took advantage of it.  I have to think nasty-looking Tom Coughlin (even his team picture, where he attempts to smile, looks forced!) will be more than smart enough to take advantage of this.  And with Eagles running back Brian Westbrook being a game-time decision with a concussion, they've lost what little running attack they have.  I feel like my lucky coin is going to be getting a work-out this week, but what else can you do with a game like this?  I think the Giants will key on the Philly receivers and take this one outright.
New York

New Orleans (-10.5) vs Atlanta
The Saints really scared me last week, before rolling off 36 second half points to take the win (and, thankfully, cover the spread and save my prognosticating bacon).  Saints QB Drew Brees threw over half of this year's interceptions in that game.  I don't think Brees will have that problem this week. If the Falcons win this one, they're right back in the hunt for the division, so they'll be fired up as well.  But the Saints are averaging almost 40 points a game and I don't see a defense like Atlanta stopping them all that easily.  The Falcons will be like one of those annoying bugs that you flick away on your way to going 7-0 (not that I know what the feels like, but I try to pretend).
New Orleans

Of course, you're more than welcome to put your own picks in the comments field!  Or you can just point and laugh in there too.  I can take it.  Kind of.  I won't start balling or anything.  Really.


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